I – The Standish Group, what is it?
The Standish Group is an American computer consulting firm known for its extraordinary biennial survey published for 30 years: the Chaos Report, which reveals the staggering failure rate of program development around the world. Here are his conclusions, which our computer friends who never intend to stop to cheat us will never tell you about: in 2019, 70% of the programs delivered to users were thrown away or rewritten! Worse than fifteen years ago : 66% in 2002!
Any other discipline would sink immediately with such a lousy score, but not computing! It is unfortunately essential, automation being the engine of the progress of our society. Especially, computing is captive of the computer scientists who hide from the world that there have been for 30 years alternative solutions infinitely more effective than them. For example, the Reasoning Artificial Intelligence. My blog is a vivid illustration of this, see among other things this edifying article (alas in French): Liste des chercheurs IA connus découvrant la puissance de mon IA mais refusant d’en parler publiquement or this one: La sournoise obstruction des responsables informatiques à l’IA raisonnante (entrée chez eux par surprise).
I have often cited the Chaos Report in my writings, holding the Standish Group in high esteem to maintain its critical study against all odds. I thought they were doing this job honestly to force the IT people to come up with a reliable solution for the users, the people for whom the IT programs are intended. Serious mistake! We are in America. No gifts. In fact, this study is used to draw customers to the Standish Group. They ask him to improve the organization of their IT department, the very one that should disappear.
In fact, perpetuating the bankruptcy of software design is the business of the Standish Group! This is why there has been no change for 26 years despite the « advice actions » of this company.
II – How did I guess? My discussion with Jennifer Lynch.
Having found this image on the Standish Group website:
I sent an email to Jennifer Lynch, titled « Chaos end! IT development by the French Reasoning Artificial Intelligence « . The title being perfectly explicit, this lady understood from the start what I meant to let her know. Since she intended not to listen to me, she should have done like all the other computer scientists: refuse the discussion with me. Because, she who believes herself to be very intelligent and used to manipulating her interlocutors, she is no match for me when it comes to AI.
Here are excerpts from our discussion where she does everything not to answer me until I get her stuck and she explodes :
Me (12/09/2019) :
Hello Jennifer,
I am a researcher, rather a French private discoverer, rewarded by the Awards.Ai 2017 prize in the category « AI achievement » for my invention La Maïeutique that allows to automatically extract the unconscious knowledge to put in the programs, to express it under the form of expert system rules in everyday English that can be read and edited by all, and executed by Reasoning Artificial Intelligence. All this simultaneously. A real RAD. Much better than the Agile.
Result: the algorithmic has become virtually useless (except to get the maximum execution speed) so the computer scientists too.
There will be no 19,000,000 developers in the world but several billion who will develop exactly what they want, when they want and devote the time they want since they are the end users. With Reasoning Artificial Intelligence their job will be to teach in English knowledge to computers for the uses they imagine. As this AI works by logic simulation, the capacity of invention of everyone is multiplied.
I have many other things to say about this AI and its potential but it will be if you react to my email.
Are you interested ?
Bye !
Jean-Philippe de Lespinay
Jennifer : « Thanks for your e-mail. We have been using AI for over 20 years to do predictive analysis. It is a big part of our benchmarks. However, we are always looking for new tools and processes. Tell us more… » Tell us more ! Following my extraordinary proposal she has no questions to ask me. She wants me to continue talking, but without telling me about what. It’s already weird …
Me (not knowing what interests her I put a whole page of which here is the summary):
- You say : « We have been using AI for over 20 years to do predictive analysis ». It is NOT artificial intelligence. At least in the sense of Turing in 1950 (Turing test) and Mc Carthy in 1970 who thought of a logical AI able to prove theorems and dialog with humans. The AI you used it’s statistical calculation, algorithmic. There are computer scientists and programming languages behind.
- I spoke about a « reasoning » AI because there is no more algorithmic or programming, and about a « French » AI because it is in line with Prolog in 1972 that used already a little reasoning. With reasoning AI anyone can write in natural language in a few hours a program of a complexity inaccessible to algorithmic. Many installations were made in large companies since 1987 which, very happy, let the media know (see my press book).
- This AI offers: instantaneous programming by users, pb of completeness solved, pb of coherence resolved, maintenance (the nightmare of computer scientists) even easier than development! Etc.
- Reasoning AI with voice interfaces it’s programming with headsets, walking anywhere on the planet, and even doing something else. Gone, the user glued to his computer, gone the infernal trio keyboard-mouse-screen !
- Please read this test of reasoning AI done by Dean Horak, an AI researcher of your country.
Jennifer : she sent me without a word a form declaring that I am now a member of the Standish Group! I did not claim this honor … Does she want to buy me?
From December 9 to 12, 2019 : no news from her.
Me, December 12, 2019: I sollicite her. No answer.
December 17: 2nd reminder, still no response.
January 14, 2020, ie a month later, 3rd raise. Là, je perds patience : « Jennifer, your silence since December 9 is rude. But he made me discover one thing: the Standish Group is not interested in defending users as I thought. His Chaos Report only serves him to conquer IT services by showing that they are malfunctioning.. When I show you that a technology makes it possible to make these services disappear to the great benefit of companies … » silence! « we are always looking for new tools and processes. » You lied to me. I will relate this sad experience in my blog.
A bad publicity made by my blog probably worries him because it finally answers me, two days later (January 16). But not by email! On LinkedIn. Where we never discussed. Why ? By email she would be obliged to answer all my previous emails. She could not pretend not to have read them. On LinkedIn there is no past between us: « Let’s connect and keep talking…. » she suggests to me lapidarily, so always without responding to my emails.
Me : I’m still waiting for your answer! (Silence…)
Me : How do you want us to connect?
Jennifer : It’s up to you
Me : OK. Let’s continue by email (jpl@tree-logic.com). Please respond to the maiI I sent to you on December 9th as well as the one on January 14th. Thank you.
Jennifer : Done (actually I don’t get anything and I wait)
Jennifer : I send you a reply on 1-14. Did you not get it? I can send it again. (as I didn’t say anything to her, she shows that she knows perfectly well that I did not receive a reply since she did not send it)
Me : I did’nt get it. Yes please send it again.
Jennifer January 16, 2020 : i resent it…
Jennifer, by an email on January 23 (and not on January 14, so it’s not the transfer of an old email as she claims): « when I read that you said that the AI we use does not was not I stopped reading you. » followed by many other considerations without interest.
Me (January 23, 2020): Then you said this » It is NOT artificial intelligence « . However, that is how we use it. At that point I stopped reading your e-mail since I felt you could not help us. « : I was writing to inform you of the existence of another AI than the one you know but you did not want to learn. (Follows a new presentation of the characteristics of Reasoning AI) You can imagine that if someone invented a computer capable of questioning users about their need, specifying and writing the programs itself, the result will be perfect. This is precisely what I wanted to present to you. At this stage are you interested that I continue or do you want to stop ?
Jennifer (doesn’t answer my question): « I do not understand why you think we have not been honest with you. » Then she tells me about a survey that the standish group did for a client. « If we did one for you, you would have to send us your complete customer list. You can become a contributor to our advice microblogs. We would need 3 things for you.
- A 50-word bio (you can include a sentence about your product or service)
- A Profile photo
- 10 microblogs
Me : Jennifer, sorry but you are wrong and you are not reading me. I am not looking to have my technology certified in your company » (…) « Do not tell me especially that you are bombarded with proposals from companies who want to sell you natural language programming, I know from experience (37 years) that this is wrong. » (…) It is vital for the world that the Standish Group (so you!) understand that it is possible to write any program only by providing the computer with a knowledge (business rules) in fluent English.
Let us refocus debate: are you interested in knowing how a computer can program without going through computer scientists and algorithms?
Jennifer (January 26, 2020): « You are right – I don’t understand what you want from me. More importantly I don’t understand why you think we are being dishonest. I have tried to be helpful. » And she comes again off topic on her microblogs proposal! Why does she insist so much on my assumption that her company is dishonest, assumption I only did once and a long time ago?
Me, exasperated: Jennifer, why do you refuse to answer my very simple question: « are you interested in knowing how a computer can program without going through computer scientists and algorithms? Please tell me Yes or No. »
Jennifer, jennifer, finally, unmasks himself: « NO! It is NOT an area of research for me or the organization. » The cry of the heart !
Me : « Finally ! You are sincere. You have been beating around the bush for as long as you can while pretending not to understand me so as not to have to answer me, but you have failed. You chatted so long not because you are genuinely interested in knowing about a new software technology that has been operational for 30 years, but to trick me. You don’t want to know if my technology works.
Now you have the answer to your question repeated several times: « I don’t understand why you think we are being dishonest. »: You are dishonest because you refuse to question an outdated technique. This means that the Standish group’s business is not the computer users but the computer scientists, those who fail in 70% of cases (your Chaos Report). This is outrageous because you are deceiving the public who believe that your company is sincerely looking for solutions to improve IT.
I’m going to talk about it in my blog of whistleblower as I promised you on January 14th and which apparently scared you since you started chatting with me again (through LinkedIn and not by mail!).
Sorry, Jennifer, I hate dishonest people.
Jennifer (surrenders to her frustration…): « I now realize I was talking to a nut case. Your technology is NOT and has failed to do as promised many time. Good luck…»
Then LinkedIn informs me that she consults the page on my profile and my recommendations, probably to know (finally!) who I am, what are my AI skills and what danger my blog can pose to her company …
The proof is made that the Standish Group is not interested in improving software design techniques, contrary to what it makes believe. It is a dishonest organization.
III – The too frequent deception of the public by US computer companies (GAFAM)
The United States is the largest market in the world where niches can appear and produce monopolies. IBM took advantage of this, which in the 1970s made a profit greater than the turnover of the 2nd largest in the world of IT. Then it was Microsoft to which IBM stupidly gave the microcomputer market. Bill Gates stayed ahead by stifling competition with unfair maneuvers without funding any R&D. His keyboard-mouse-screen-multi-window system has been an aberration for 40 years but we are all forced to use it. Intel dominates the market so much that it makes very little effort to improve its microprocessors, going so far as to boast of Moore’s law, which shows linear progress while real progress is always exponential. Facebook is a success without genius, without the slightest innovation, simply the first to occupy a niche. Etc.
All these companies, Standish Group included, completely mocking the general interest while they have the financial means to improve society. It is only now that Bill Gates, out of Microsoft, finances humanitarian actions, wishing to be well respected …
Reasoning AI : Artificial Intelligence for all 